Newsletter – October 2009
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"Secure 24/7 Global Access to your Business" |
October 2009 |
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“All things on earth point home in old October; sailors to sea, travellers to walls and fences, hunters to field and hollow and the long voice of the hounds, the lover to the love he has forsaken” - Thomas Wolfe
End of the tenth month of a "who’s on first" year!
Mark Foster - FFSolutions
With October already behind us and business efforts seemingly optimistic, for the most part, the question of our (Canada’s) stable economy is still highly debatable. We still use America as a mindful comparison, despite Canada’s more conservative initiatives in recent years. Q3 brought growth to the American GDP, home resales jumped by 9.4% in September and August (we can guess why – the threat of a tax credit about to expire), the biggest rise in 26 years. New homes sales dropped as well as consumer confidence fell sharply. And Canada? Well suffice to say we are not out of the woods yet and the increasing questions related to the aggregate federal and provincial budget deficit burdens for residents of some provinces is not that far behind the Americans. But to give you a little more in-depth report on both real estate and the global markets I direct you to articles below, kindly submitted this month by Vince and Steve . Here’s to a prosperous November! EMAIL MARK Real Estate Commentary "The Fourth Quarter: I hope we don’t go into overtime! " Vince Taylor - Pilothouse Real Estate – Vancouver Canada. The real estate market in the fourth quarter of this year has/is rebounding nicely – with a few notable exceptions.
Steve Dunn – Private Investor, R.E. Developer & Entrepreneur
Greetings. I am back from my self imposed late summer hiatus. It was a busy and a wonderful time but that is another story. So does it feel like the Global recession is over? No it doesn’t…but it is. Why is that? Well consider the following. On the balance, weekly initial jobless claims in the US have been falling for months. This past week they stalled out a bit at 531,000. That’s still a large number and is contributing to the overall unemployment rate in the US pushing upwards to and through 10%. Importantly though they have spiked down from their spring/summer highs and the trend is to lower claims. This combined with the fact that the Conference Board’s Leading Indicators have risen steadily for 6 months now is a pretty sure sign that the US is digging its way out. And there are important signs elsewhere.. In Canada we saw for the first time a net increase in jobs…albeit in the Public sector. And demand for our commodity products is growing…notably from China. And Australia has led the world with a small rate increase from their Central bank. This signals that they are moving to fight inflation now that their economy is humming again. And why is that? Well for one thing they export 30% of their GDP to China. (It is interesting to note that technically they were never in a recession as they only had one not two quarters of negative growth economic growth). Sensing a theme here? Yup…China. Economic recovery in North America is not going to come about by renewed consumer spending in the US. The consumer is hunkering down. Their confidence is still near an all time low and rising very slowly. They are de-leveraging. It is now in vogue to pay down your credit lines and not buy that new car or second house or boat. And their savings rate is going up. So if the US consumer is not going to open their pocket book and spend their way out of this recession someone else will need to. Business you say? Not with the continuing credit crunch that is out there. Nope, that someone else is China…and India…and….not the US. This will be a very slow recovery, unlike any that has gone before. The world’s economic engines are changing and that will not happen quickly. Anyone counting on a meaningful economic recovery will be greatly disappointed. More on this next month. EMAIL STEVE
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